FXUS64 KOHX 010838 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 238 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 Dry conditions should persist through tonight as surface high pressure and upper level ridging influences initially centered across southern Ohio River Valley Region slowly shift eastward as upper level flow develops more zonal flow characteristics. Weak upper level disturbance will move across mid state region on Friday providing a focusing mechanism for isolated shower development spreading west to east as day progresses. This shower potential will also be aided by a southerly moist warm air advection pattern becoming established across our area. As for temperatures, look for highs today to remain seasonably cool spanning mid to upper 40s. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than temperatures generally spanning the mid 20s this morning, ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Friday will warm to around seasonal normal values spanning the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 238 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022 A frontal system will approach mid state region late Friday night and push through our area as Saturday morning progresses. This will bring about an additional one half inch of rainfall to mid state region. Look for another frontal system passage across our area northwest to southeast as Tuesday into Tuesday night progresses. But main quandary in long term period centers around how much rainfall mid state region might get Sunday through Wednesday of next week. That depends on amount of potential shortwaves passages across mid state region. That upper level flow pattern will initial have zonal characteristics but will become more southwesterly orientated as mid week approaches per upper level ridging influences building across western Gulf of Mexico region. Periodic influxes of low level atmospheric moisture are expected to occur also. Basically it looks like an unsettled and wet weather pattern will become established across our area Sunday through Wednesday. However, specifics in timing, areal coverage, and amount of rainfall are still hard to come by. So there is potential of a multi day rainfall event Sunday through Wednesday with several inches of rainfall possible, but still too early to settle in on exact amounts expected. Could possibly even be a slight chance of a rain/snow mix across northern half of mid state region Sunday morning before temperatures warm up into mid 30s by mid morning hours. However, no wintry accumulation amounts are expected as of this time. As for temperatures, after frontal passage on Saturday night with lows ranging upper 20s to lower 30s and highs on Sunday mainly upper 40s to lower 50s, high temperatures will warm back up to slightly above seasonal normal values by Tuesday afternoon. Above mentioned Tuesday night frontal passage will lower high temperatures once again back to seasonably cooler values ranging from upper 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022 BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. There could be some light fog along the rivers and bodies of water towards morning hours...however this should not affect any of the terminals. Cirrus clouds will be on the increase after 14Z AOA 25K ft. Winds will be light under 10 kts start out northwesterly and come around to the south by 00Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 48 33 59 49 / 0 0 20 80 Clarksville 47 29 59 44 / 0 0 20 90 Crossville 45 29 52 44 / 0 0 10 80 Columbia 48 31 58 49 / 0 0 20 80 Cookeville 47 31 55 48 / 0 0 20 80 Jamestown 44 30 53 46 / 0 0 20 90 Lawrenceburg 48 33 57 49 / 0 0 20 80 Murfreesboro 48 30 58 48 / 0 0 20 80 Waverly 47 31 58 45 / 0 10 20 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....12