FXUS64 KOHX 190147
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
847 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Updated suite of forecast products to remove late this afternoon
wording from zone forecast product. Although did not change areal
coverage of current Flash Flood Watch, refreshed wording. Per
best initialization and most realistic weather pattern evolution
as tonight progresses, leaned toward a blended CONShort/HRRR
solution. Expecting convection to continue dissipating as evening
hours progress. However, this model blend advertising convection
becoming once again robust across southeastern portions of mid
state region as overnight hours progress and then spreading
generally north and northwestward late. Tweaked hourly sky
condition, temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/direction grids
blending them with associated late evening gridded values.
Current temperature trend values continue in line with forecasted
lows. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Several admendments possible especially
09/06Z-09/24Z. Per reasoning above, limited mention of prevailing
shwrs/vcnty tstms until 09/15Z-09/24Z as convection will once
again develop overnight, but should not reach terminals until
09/15Z-09/24Z time frame. Vcnty tstms forecasted because of
continued uncertainty of actual development at or movement across
terminal sites. Initial VFR ceiling prevalence should slowly
erode to MVFR thresholds 09/16Z-09/18Z. VFR vsbys along with
light SE winds should prevail thru 09/24Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Giles-Hickman-Lawrence-Lewis-Marshall-Maury-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Sumner-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........JB Wright