FXUS64 KOHX 281912
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
212 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Finally. We got some rain. Well, most of Middle TN has. Rainfall
totals range from none in the southwest to around 4 inches along the
KY/TN state line today. This is a welcomed sight and while rains
continue to fall across the northern half of the mid-state, I bring
the unfortunate news that many in our south and southwest aren't
going to be as lucky. More on that in a minute. For now, look for
current rains to continue pushing to the southeast over the next few
hours and as they do so, reflectivites will continue to wane. We've
already lost most of the thunder that has been associated with
today's storms as storms move into a much more stable air mass. As
we get into the evening hours, the bulk of the rain will push east
of the mid-state, but an isolated shower is still possible through
about midnight. By tomorrow morning, we will be drying out -- and
for a while.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

As the sun comes up tomorrow, the influences of a decent upper level
ridge will start to take hold across the region. A couple of things
will come of this and the first is Saturday. With the ridge overhead
and a bit of north to northeast breeze, we should mix out very well.
The NBM doesn't handle this type of scenario well, so I have
blended in a heavy dose of the raw GFS to push dew points lower
Saturday afternoon. While this may be a bit more illustrative of
what RH values should be Saturday, it still may not be low enough,
so we'll need to watch this over the next day. Because of this,
I've also bumped afternoon highs on Saturday a little higher, as
well.

The second thing to come of this ridge that will control our weather
for the next week? The drying conditions. The US Drought Monitor
that was released this morning shows worsening conditions across
Middle TN. Today's rains will go a long way to curb the effects of
this for areas along and north of I-40, but for those in the south
and southwest who don't see rain today? It looks like it could be
another week before rains touch the soil in your area. Long range
guidance is currently suggesting a Thursday or Thursday night
arrival of our next weather system. For now, look for highs to be
consistent in the low to mid 80s each day and overnight lows in the
low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through early in the
TAF period with IFR to MVFR VIS, but upstream obs indicate CIGS
should remain VFR. For the rest of the afternoon and overnight,
models indicate light shower activity off and on with no
significant impacts to aviation expected at this time, but will
have to watch this trend with the next TAF issuance. Winds should
begin to shift around to the west after daybreak tomorrow ushering
a gradual clearing trend with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  86  63  88 /  40  10   0   0
Clarksville    63  85  62  88 /  30  10   0   0
Crossville     56  78  57  81 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia       62  87  62  89 /  30  10   0   0
Cookeville     60  79  59  83 /  40  10   0   0
Jamestown      58  76  57  80 /  20  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   61  86  62  88 /  30  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   62  86  62  90 /  40  10   0   0
Waverly        62  86  62  88 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....05