FXUS64 KOHX 281143 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 643 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Chilly morning across the midstate with current temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Satellite imagery shows some scattered cirrus moving across the area, but these clouds should move out of the area the next few hours. With mostly clear skies, light to calm winds, dewpoints below freezing, and lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s - patchy to fairly widespread frost is expected by sunrise and made no changes to the frost advisory. Despite the frosty start, a decent warmup is anticipated today with highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight will be chilly once again although a few degrees warmer than this morning, and some frost will once again be possible mainly along and east of I-65 with another frost advisory potentially necessary. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Big warmup is expected across the region through the weekend into early next week as a large upper level ridge builds northward from the Gulf of Mexico and southerly return flow begins. Highs will reach the mid 60s to low 70s on Friday, 70s areawide on Saturday, and mid 70s to low 80s on Sunday and Monday - so it will definitely feel like spring as we move into the first part of April. Low level moisture will also be on the increase due to the prolonged period of return flow from the Gulf, with dewpoints rising into the 50s on Saturday/Sunday and 60s by Monday. 00Z guidance suggests a weak shortwave moving through the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers to Kentucky that may clip our northern counties on Saturday night into Sunday, but chance is low and most areas will remain dry. Better chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Monday and especially Tuesday as a large positive-tilt upper trough ejects out of the Plains into the eastern half of the country. 00Z guidance is in better agreement with synoptic scale features of this system, taking a sub-1000mb surface low from Kansas into the southern Great Lakes. Associated cold front is forecast to sweep through the state during the day on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the boundary. Although this is still Day 6 of the forecast and guidance has not been very consistent with the evolution of this system, currently appears to be a svr wx threat given the CAPE/shear combo and favorable synoptic pattern. Rainfall also looks to be plentiful early next week with latest WPC guidance showing up to 1.5 inches of rain. A few showers will remain possible into Wednesday, but after that rest of the week looks cooler, drier and quiet as northwest flow develops aloft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 VFR conditions continue at all sites. Calm winds slightly increase to around 5 to 10 knots out of the northeast this morning, then gradually turn out of the west and southwest through this evening. CSV and SRB could see some gusts to around 15 knots during the daylight hours. Skies should remain clear throughout the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 40 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 62 41 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 57 36 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 63 38 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 58 38 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 56 38 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 39 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 36 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 40 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence- Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett- Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Whitehead