FXUS64 KOHX 041115
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
515 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After a pretty nice day on Wed, the forecast remains fairly quiet
the next several days. Upper trough remaining across the eastern
US will drive a weak dry cold front across the mid-state later
today, which eventually settles down along the gulf coast on Fri,
then moves farther south over the weekend. This upper trough will
transition to a ridge early Fri, then into a fairly sharp trough
quickly Fri night. Our passing front today will play a role in
keeping the mid-state dry Fri through the weekend. Rain
associated with this upper trough passes well west and south in
the vicinity of this frontal boundary, while strong SFC/LL high
pressure maintains the mid-south.

And this dry trend won't stop there. Sunday's upper trough will
dampen the first part of next, with weak ridging over the area
late Mon, generally remaining into Wed, before breaking down Wed
night. SFC/LL high pressure also pushing out as the center moves
into the Atlantic.

And while maybe a shower or two clips the northwest late Wed
afternoon, Wed night will be our first decent chance of rain for
these many days. Thu morning a frontal boundary is expected to
move into the OH valley, although models have trended slower with
this feature last few runs. Either way, through the middle of
next week, rain will be quite scare.

This passing front today will keep our temps near season normals
through the weekend, but a warming trend is in store to start off
next week. And by mid-week, many locations will see highs in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...High pressure will continue to dominate the
weather across Middle Tennessee for the foreseeable future.
Expect VFR wx thru the TAF period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........08