FXUS64 KOHX 281912 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 212 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through tonight) Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Finally. We got some rain. Well, most of Middle TN has. Rainfall totals range from none in the southwest to around 4 inches along the KY/TN state line today. This is a welcomed sight and while rains continue to fall across the northern half of the mid-state, I bring the unfortunate news that many in our south and southwest aren't going to be as lucky. More on that in a minute. For now, look for current rains to continue pushing to the southeast over the next few hours and as they do so, reflectivites will continue to wane. We've already lost most of the thunder that has been associated with today's storms as storms move into a much more stable air mass. As we get into the evening hours, the bulk of the rain will push east of the mid-state, but an isolated shower is still possible through about midnight. By tomorrow morning, we will be drying out -- and for a while. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 As the sun comes up tomorrow, the influences of a decent upper level ridge will start to take hold across the region. A couple of things will come of this and the first is Saturday. With the ridge overhead and a bit of north to northeast breeze, we should mix out very well. The NBM doesn't handle this type of scenario well, so I have blended in a heavy dose of the raw GFS to push dew points lower Saturday afternoon. While this may be a bit more illustrative of what RH values should be Saturday, it still may not be low enough, so we'll need to watch this over the next day. Because of this, I've also bumped afternoon highs on Saturday a little higher, as well. The second thing to come of this ridge that will control our weather for the next week? The drying conditions. The US Drought Monitor that was released this morning shows worsening conditions across Middle TN. Today's rains will go a long way to curb the effects of this for areas along and north of I-40, but for those in the south and southwest who don't see rain today? It looks like it could be another week before rains touch the soil in your area. Long range guidance is currently suggesting a Thursday or Thursday night arrival of our next weather system. For now, look for highs to be consistent in the low to mid 80s each day and overnight lows in the low 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through early in the TAF period with IFR to MVFR VIS, but upstream obs indicate CIGS should remain VFR. For the rest of the afternoon and overnight, models indicate light shower activity off and on with no significant impacts to aviation expected at this time, but will have to watch this trend with the next TAF issuance. Winds should begin to shift around to the west after daybreak tomorrow ushering a gradual clearing trend with VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 86 63 88 / 40 10 0 0 Clarksville 63 85 62 88 / 30 10 0 0 Crossville 56 78 57 81 / 20 10 0 0 Columbia 62 87 62 89 / 30 10 0 0 Cookeville 60 79 59 83 / 40 10 0 0 Jamestown 58 76 57 80 / 20 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 61 86 62 88 / 30 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 62 86 62 90 / 40 10 0 0 Waverly 62 86 62 88 / 40 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....05