FXUS64 KOHX 271125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper low spinning over the Ark-La-Tex region major player in the
Wx next few days as upper high to the east yields. We did get a bit
dry slotted yesterday but that will be overcome today as deep
moisture advection gets into high gear once again. Closed upper low
wobbles only short distance east today/tonight, but makes better
progress on Thu as it prepares to open and swing across the mid-
south on Fri as a fairly deep upper trough. SFC low also makes
substantial move Thu night as well accelerating into the OH
valley. This will again spell scattered to numerous showers/storms
for the area through Fri night. PWs today significantly higher
than normal but we do see a slow decline beginning later Thu as
upper trough moves into the MS river valley. This will give us
best chance for heavier rain today/tonight. Slow movement of upper
low today could easily leave some training segments...leading to
localized minor flooding. Severe potential remains quite
unimpressive. CAPE does jump up 400-500J today and Thu at times
but SRH largely double digits and bulk shear never really goes
above 35kts today through Fri. That being said, a few strong
storms not out of the question, especially on Thu when parameters
a bit more favorable.

later Fri/Fri night...upper trough and cold front pass, signaling
the end of this episode and kicking off a largely dry weekend right
on into the middle of next week. SFC/LL sprawling high pressure will
take control of the OH/TN valleys on Sun while upper ridge builds for
several days.

We are looking at temps pretty close to normal through Fri, with
a nice cool down over the weekend, and then a gradual warming
trend to start off next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Mainly light showers are ongoing across Middle
Tennessee this morning. A band of deeper moisture is coming
through the mid state ahead of a deep upper low that is currently
centered near the Arklatex. HRRR shows that showers will continue
throughout the day and into the evening, and even some storms
developing later on. Ceilings will bounce around this morning, but
probably won't go fully VFR until later this afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......07
AVIATION........08