FXUS64 KOHX 161133 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 533 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 - Above average temperatures expected through Saturday. - Rain returns Friday evening through Saturday with snow flurries Saturday night. Little to no accumulation is expected. - All of Middle TN will be at or below freezing for at least 72 hours starting Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 137 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 It's chilly out there at forecast time, but not like it's gonna be next week. However, before that cold air gets here, there's a warmup in store. It'll start today. Under mostly clear skies and breezy west winds, many will creep into the low 50s this afternoon. Of course, we'll have our colder spots on the Cumberland Plateau, but by Friday afternoon even many of those spots will see some low 50s while the rest of the area climbs into some luke warm mid 50s under a southerly breeze. As many will surmise, that southerly wind usually means rain is on the way. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 137 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Current models suggest rains will start to enter our western zones shortly after sunset Friday evening. I don't see any big reason to add thunder into the forecast, but I am seeing at least a skosh of elevated MUCAPE south of I-40 with pretty sharp mid-level lapse rates. Even if we do reach convective levels, we're not talking severe weather or anything. Just some more moderate rain rates. On average, we have a medium shot at seeing about 1/2 inch across the mid-state through Saturday morning. The question everyone's asking: will we see any snow from this system? I do believe we'll see some snowflakes flying Saturday evening as the cold air rushes in on the backside of this system. However, I don't think we're looking at any significant accumulations. Grounds will warm up over the next couple of days and with the short-lived, light QPF on the backside of this system, there's a low chance of seeing a dusting on the Plateau Saturday evening. The bigger impact will be this CP airmass that is going to cause temperatures to plummet next week. Current projections are for temperatures to fall below freezing Saturday night (with multiple mornings in the single digits) and most of the area will spend at least the next 72 hours below freezing. That'll be something to look forward to. Fortunately, we have a high chance of remaining precip-free until Wednesday night or Thursday next week. Models are not in great agreement on anything in this time frame so I'm not even going to talk about p- type at this point. Get ready to bundle up! The last time we hit single digits at BNA was January 21, 2024. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 VFR conditions expected during the day today at all sites. Broken MVFR cigs are possible late tonight at SRB and CSV. These may stick around through early Friday morning. Winds will be gusty today out of the west around 20 knots. They'll turn northwesterly this evening and become light as we head into the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 51 29 55 45 / 0 0 0 90 Clarksville 49 27 54 42 / 0 0 30 90 Crossville 44 22 47 37 / 0 0 0 90 Columbia 52 27 54 43 / 0 0 0 90 Cookeville 46 25 51 40 / 0 0 0 90 Jamestown 43 23 48 36 / 0 0 0 90 Lawrenceburg 52 27 54 43 / 0 0 0 90 Murfreesboro 51 26 55 43 / 0 0 0 90 Waverly 49 28 54 42 / 0 0 30 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Whitehead