FXUS64 KOHX 270555
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning shows the broad upper-level
trough axis finally shifting to the east as ridging begins to
build to our south. Still plenty of moisture out there though with
the PWAT on yesterday evening's sounding coming in at 1.76 inches.
Would expect that to decrease on today's soundings though.
Meanwhile, closer to the surface, dewpoint depressions are once
again small at or less than 2 degrees. This is again leading to
the development of patchy fog across the area as has been the case
the past several mornings.

Thanks to the ridging building overhead today, storm chances will
decrease today. They won't be zero as there's nothing to
completely get rid of our moisture, but coverage should be less
compared to previous days. The ridge will be short lived though as
a trough moves across the Midwest. This trough will bring more
storm coverage as we head into the new work week. Localized
flooding will continue to be a concern, especially in heavier
downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Troughing over Middle TN will continue to impact the area on
Monday. PWAT values ranging from 1.5 to to 2 inches are possible
during this and moving forward for the rest of the week. The
troughing won't last long as a high pressure develops over the
southern plains. With this ridging, summertime pop-ups are
likely each day. Heat and dewpoints will continue to climb
through out the week, leading to heat indices nudging into the
100-110F range. Another upper-level trough may move into the area
late next week, but confidence is low in timing and strength of
this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

We will see patchy fog across the area tonight, this will bring
MVFR/IFR conditions at times and locally down to LIFR. Any patchy
fog will lift by 13z. SCT to BKN clouds 040-060 develop by 17z.
Isolated showers and storms between 18 and 03z with the best
chances near the TN River. Light winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  74  86  73 /  30  50  80  70
Clarksville    86  72  84  71 /  40  70  80  70
Crossville     85  67  80  66 /  40  20  80  70
Columbia       87  72  85  71 /  30  50  80  60
Cookeville     85  70  80  68 /  30  20  80  80
Jamestown      86  68  81  66 /  20  20  70  80
Lawrenceburg   86  71  83  70 /  40  50  80  70
Murfreesboro   89  72  85  71 /  30  40  80  70
Waverly        86  71  84  69 /  40  70  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements/Payette
AVIATION.....Mueller