FXUS64 KOHX 170821
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
321 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Consensus blended model solution used per good overall
initialization agreement and realistic evolution of expected
weather through Sun afternoon. Consensus blended model solution
continuing trend of recent model runs showing less and less
precipitation chances across mid state region through Tue
afternoon per a series of weak upper level disturbance passages.
Only light rainfall amounts expected across entire area too,
generally less than one quarter of an inch. Dry conditions
continue to prevail Tue night through Sun afternoon.

Surface front should remain quasi stationary across southern
Ohio Valley Region today. As upper level flow becomes more
quasi zonal as day progresses across western portions of mid
state region, isolated late afternoon showers may be possible
for locations approaching Tennessee River Valley Region. Under
generally mostly cloudy skies, highs today will be around
seasonal normal values around 80 degrees, mid 70s Cumberland
Plateau Region.

Tonight into Tue expecting generally isolated to scattered
showers to continue, with just enough instability developing
to support isolated thunderstorms during Tue afternoon hours.
This scenario due to low level moisture fetch strengthening and
surface front remaining quasi stationary to our north, as upper
level ridging influences try to develop to our east and at least
attempt to put a damper on more robust shower and thunderstorm
development across eastern portions of mid state region by late
Tue afternoon. Seasonally mild lows tonight in lower 60s, upper
50s to around 60 Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Tue will be
seasonably warm in mid 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s Cumberland
Plateau Region.

Consensus blended model solution showing very good agreement in
concerning strength of upper level ridging influences building
east to west across our area Tue night through upcoming weekend.
Maybe some isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop
approaching Land Between the Lakes Region as Wed afternoon
progresses per one more weak upper level disturbance passage,
but otherwise dry and warming conditions expected through Sun
afternoon. Mild lows in low to mid 60s, upper 50s to around 60
Cumberland Plateau Region expected through upcoming weekend.
Highs on Wed will be low to mid 80s, around 80 Cumberland Plateau
Region. With continued building of upper level ridging influences
eastward into mid state region through upcoming weekend, high
temperatures by Sun afternoon will become unseasonably warm rising
into upper 80s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Would not be
surprised that some isolated locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region reach 90 degree mark for highs over upcoming weekend also.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered to broken high clouds will stream across the area over
the next 24 hours, but we should remain mostly dry. Southerly
winds will increase slightly during the day on Monday with gusts
10 to 20 knots possible. VFR at all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  62  80  64  85 /  10  20  20  10  10
Clarksville    79  62  78  62  84 /  20  40  50  10  10
Crossville     76  58  74  58  79 /  10  20  20  10  10
Columbia       80  62  80  62  85 /  10  20  20  10  10
Lawrenceburg   80  63  80  63  85 /  10  20  20  10  10
Waverly        80  60  80  63  85 /  20  30  40  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........11