FXUS64 KOHX 170135
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
835 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

After a hot day today, a cool and picture-perfect night is in
store for Middle TN. The harvest moon is out in full force
tonight and viewing conditions are excellent with little to no
clouds across the area. Overnight lows are expected to drop into
the upper 50s for most. A few areas of patchy fog are possible
overnight, especially near bodies of water and across our
southwest counties since there's so much moisture still around
from recent rains. Tuesday looks like another warm day with a mix
of clouds and sun. Highs in the mid 80s. Showers are possible
across the Plateau starting late morning through the afternoon in
association with a potential topical cyclone moving in from the
Atlantic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over
Middle Tn. For some, a welcomed break from the past several days
of rain, but for others, still wishing for some rain that never
arrived. Partly cloudy to clear skies will be the headline with
high temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon. Much of the
same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our
eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are
expected. Highs look to only reach the upper 70s across the Upper
Cumberland on Tuesday! Winds will be on the lighter side, out of
the north. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower
side making those high temps not feel so bad.

Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some
increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight over the Carolinas. This will bring some chance for
precipitation over the Upper Cumberland, but little accumulation
is expected at this time. Latest LREF probabilities show only a 30
percent chance for Crossville to see greater than 0.10 inches of
rainfall through Wednesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As mentioned above, the Upper Cumberland will see some
precipitation chances through the mid week with the potential of
TC Eight development. By Thursday into Friday, drier conditions
are favored before rain chances return Sunday and into Monday.
Confidence is low on this right now, but latest guidance suggest
a mid-level disturbance pushing through by early next week so some
showers can't be ruled out at this time. High temperatures warm
back into the upper 80s to even low 90s for Friday and into the
weekend but moderate back into the mid 80s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period although MVFR cigs
and -SHRA will impact CSV after 15Z on Tuesday morning. Northeast
winds will continue through the TAF period with speeds generally
from 3-7 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  85  64  86 /   0  10  10   0
Clarksville    59  87  60  86 /   0  10  10   0
Crossville     55  74  58  77 /  20  20  10  10
Columbia       60  86  60  85 /   0  10  10   0
Cookeville     58  77  60  78 /  10  20  10  10
Jamestown      57  72  60  77 /  20  30  10  10
Lawrenceburg   58  85  60  83 /   0  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   60  85  62  84 /   0  10  10   0
Waverly        60  86  60  86 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Shamburger