FXUS64 KOHX 291121 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 621 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 It's another very comfortable morning across Middle Tennessee with temperatures and dewpoints only in the 50s and 60s. However, deeper gulf moisture is lurking just southeast of our area in northeastern Alabama and southeastern Tennessee where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s. A few showers have also been noted on radar in the area of higher moisture near our eastern cwa border. This deeper gulf moisture will gradually ooze northwestward today into our southeastern counties as light southerly flow develops to our south. At the same time, upper level ridging will build northward overhead with heights rising several decameters through the day. This combo will create a much hotter and more humid day today than we have seen since last weekend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s west of the Plateau and dewpoints rising into the 60s for most areas. Exception will be our northwest counties where drier air will linger most of the day due to the slow progression of this pseudo warm front. Enough moisture will also be available by afternoon for some isolated showers or thunderstorms across our far southern and eastern counties. However, latest HRRR keeps most activity just outside our cwa border, so don't expect much. By tomorrow, deep moisture will finally spread through the entire area into Kentucky as the upper ridge becomes entrenched overhead, with dewpoints rising into the 60s/70s and PWATS reaching around the 1.75 inch mark. Daytime heating plus the increase in moisture should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up by midday into Thursday afternoon, with chance pops warranted in our southern counties and slight chance in our north. Forecast soundings for Thursday don't show anything that notable, but MLCAPE values rising into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range, DCAPE approaching 800-900 J/Kg, and mid level lapse rates of 6 C/Km may be enough for a few strong storms. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 00Z model suite shows the H5 ridge over the Tennessee Valley will remain steady state Friday and Saturday before strengthening next week as a deep trough moves onshore the West Coast. This will keep temps in the 80s to low 90s on Friday/Saturday, but rising into the low to mid 90s next week west of the Plateau. Both the GFS and ECMWF show heights rising to near 596dm by the end of the forecast period, so some upper 90s are even possible. As far as rainfall, guidance has unfortunately trended downward with precip coverage over the weekend into next week due to the strength of the upper ridge, and have had to lower pops into the chance range in line with the latest NBM. Even so, still expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up each day, with highest coverage in the higher terrain of our eastern counties. Latest WPC QPF remains unimpressive with only around 1/10 up to 1 inch of rain possible over the next 7 days. Although some parts of Middle Tennessee have seen quite a bit of rainfall this month, such as the Plateau, other areas have seen very little including much of the Nashville metro. The continued lack of significant rain in the drier parts of Middle Tennessee will likely lead to drought conditions developing by late next week if not sooner. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 VFR conditions should mostly prevail. There are MVFR ceilings related to stratus this morning at KCSV, but this should improve through the course of the morning back to VFR conditions. Winds will be out of the northeast today around 5kts. Some showers may occur this afternoon at or near KCSV, but confidence in affecting the site is too low to include mention in the forecast for now. Winds will begin to shift out of the southeast later tonight, after 06Z, at KBNA but speeds will be light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 71 93 73 / 0 0 30 10 Clarksville 90 65 92 71 / 0 0 20 10 Crossville 83 64 84 66 / 20 0 30 20 Columbia 90 69 90 69 / 10 10 30 10 Cookeville 87 68 87 69 / 10 0 30 10 Jamestown 84 65 86 67 / 10 0 20 10 Lawrenceburg 89 69 89 69 / 10 10 30 10 Murfreesboro 91 69 91 70 / 10 0 30 10 Waverly 90 67 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Culin