FXUS64 KMRX 281911
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Key Messages:

1. An isolated shower or two possible early, but drier conditions
expected overnight and on Friday.

Discussion:

Upper level low is centered across the Great Lakes region this
afternoon with the Ohio and Tennessee Valley within cyclonic flow.
Regional radar imagery continues to show areas of rain showers and
embedded thunderstorms across central Tennessee this afternoon, with
the local area mostly dry. So far models have been handling the
current situation well (at least locally) increasing confidence in
the forecast. The upper trough will continue to move east into the
overnight hours. There may be enough forcing for an isolated shower
or two this afternoon and overnight but confidence is fairly low and
most of the forecast will be dry. Clouds will continue to clear out
this afternoon and evening leaving mostly clear skies overnight.
With clear skies and winds expected to go calm across many areas,
areas of dense fog seems like a good possibility overnight.

Heights increase on Friday as the upper trough advances into the
northeast with ridging just to the west. High pressure will remain
settled throughout the region keeping dry weather conditions across
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Key Messages:

1. Dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures through
the extended period.

Discussion:

High pressure will begin building into the region to begin the
period behind a departing trough. High pressure then strengthens and
persists through the middle of next week. Thereafter, models seem to
be in decent agreement that a deep longwave trough moves in from
the Great Plains and kicks the high to our east. This doesn't
happen though until the end of the extended period. We will have
to see if models continue with this solution as it would mean a
cool down for our area. Both high and low temps still look to
average around 5 degrees above normal through this extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Cloud cover has been slow to clear but satellite and surface
observations are finally showing clearing taking place. MVFR CIGS
at TRI should continue to clear out soon. VFR is expected at CHA
and TYS through the period. Clearing skies and light winds will
bring fog to TRI around 10-12Z where prevailing LIFR conditions
are currently forecast. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise.
There may be a few isolated showers around through the next 24
hours but confidence seems high enough they won't impact the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  83  62  84 /  10  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  82  61  83 /  10  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              57  78  58  80 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Diegan
AVIATION...Diegan