FXUS64 KMRX 221407
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1007 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Another quiet weather day with plenty of sunshine and light winds.
No changes planned other than a few tweaks to temps and dew points
with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Key Message:

1. Another day of mild and dry conditions can be expected, followed
by more seasonal temperatures tonight.

Discussion:

Currently early this morning, a shortwave is located to our
northwest with surface high pressure in place. Throughout the day,
the shortwave will lift further north with another coming into view
in the Northern Plains overnight. Locally, continued subsidence will
promote dry and seasonally mild conditions similar to recent days.
RH values will drop into the 30s and upper 20s once again but with
light winds due to a weak MSLP gradient and virtually no low-level
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Key Messages:

1. Other than very low-end rain chances in the north on Saturday,
the region is expected to stay dry.

2. Temperatures will be generally above normal, especially on
Wednesday and Friday.

Wednesday through Friday

At the start of the period, the shortwave mentioned in the near-term
period will be progressing towards the Upper Great Lakes with
surface high pressure receding to our east. An accompanying front
will approach from the northwest ahead of another surface high.
Based on the latest guidance, it is unclear how far south this front
will progress. However, limited moisture and fairly weak CAA won't
produce much airmass change in either case. By Friday, another
shortwave and frontal boundary will be noted to our northwest. A
return of southerly flow will produce well above normal
temperatures, likely in the 80s in southern areas.

Saturday through Monday

By Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave will move through the area,
followed by another reinforcing shortwave by the end of the period.
The frontal boundary will trail behind and will likely arrive by
Sunday. Moisture will still be limited overall but sufficient for
low-end rain chances in the north ahead of the front on Saturday.
While it remains unclear how far south the front progresses, the
height falls alone will produce moderation in temperatures closer to
normal. High pressure will keep the region dry, but most places will
likely still stay dry on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Light winds and VFR conditions will continue through the day and
into tonight. Any cloud cover will be limited and likely above
10,000 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             79  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  44  73  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...BW