FXUS64 KMEG 032351
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
551 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020

.UPDATE...

See the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CST Thu Dec 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Gloomy and dreary conditions are occurring across the Mid-South
today thanks to a SFC low pressure system. Light rain continues
across much of the area east of the Mississippi River at this
time. A new SFC low is in the process of developing near the
Louisiana Gulf Coast. This low will intensify the rain across
areas of North Mississippi and West Tennessee this evening as the
low tracks northward. Meanwhile, expect drizzle to begin
developing outside of this rainband. The rainband over North
Mississippi and West Tennessee will begin to push east around 3-4
AM CST as the SFC low tracks into Northeast Alabama. Expect the
back edge to be clearing the Tennessee River around sunrise.
However, patchy drizzle will continue to affect much of the Mid-
South through Friday morning. By the afternoon, some showers may
develop across West Tennessee as the associated upper level low
pressure moves over the Mid-South. Showers should dissipate by
sunset as the upper low moves east. Temperatures tonight won't
drop too much with the cloud cover and drizzle. Expect lows to be
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The clouds will also keep
temperatures from warming too much on Friday. As a result, expect
a chilly day with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

High pressure will build into the area on Saturday. Some patchy
fog could develop Friday Night as clouds clear. However, sunshine
will finally make an appearance after the fog burns off. Highs
will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Confidence in the forecast dwindles for Sunday as now both the
Canadian and ECMWF show an upper low moving northwestward out of
the Southwest United States and a second upper low sinking south
out of the Midwest. The two systems kind of meet over the Mid-
South by Sunday afternoon. Would not be surprised to see a few
showers develop over the Mid-South. For now have bumped cloud
conditions from previous forecast for now. However, POPS and a
further increase in clouds may be needed as models have better
agreement with system. Regardless, a reinforcing cold front will
move through the region Sunday Night into Monday morning and will
drop high temperatures back into the 40s. Can't rule out some
flurries occurring behind the front, but for now have left mention
out of the forecast.

A warming trend will occur by Wednesday through the end of next
week as upper ridging begins to occur across the area. Highs may
approach 60 degrees by next Thursday.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
//00Z TAFs//

Current MVFR and IFR conds will persist through the overnight
period. JBR may see some temporary improvement, but all other
sites will remain IFR and possibly LIFR overnight. Light rain
will redevelop over the next couple of hours and affect MEM, MKL,
and TUP. Conds should improve tomorrow morning as the upper level
low pressure system shifts east and clouds break up.

Winds will remain light and variable overnight, shifting to
the northwest and west through the end of the period. Expect a few
gusts during the afternoon hours tomorrow.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$