FXUS64 KMEG 282055 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 355 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Showers and thunderstorms are currently trekking through Middle Tennessee. Additional showers and storms will move into West Tennessee by late afternoon and continue through early Friday. Tomorrow, hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend into next week. Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs in the 90s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Upper-level water vapor imagery depicts a upper low centered in the Great Lakes region extending into the MidSouth with a upper level ridge amplifying behind it. As the low moves east, the ridge will build in and result in hot and dry conditions for the remainder of the week into next week. Currently, a shortwave trough, rounding the base of the main trough, is triggering showers and thunderstorms across TN. An additional round of showers and storms will ignite along the base tonight and continue through early Friday morning. Guidance shows this additional convection mainly focused in west TN. Tomorrow, hot and dry conditions are expected to impact the area as the ridge continues to amplify and extend in the region. Highs are anticipated to be in the 90s and lows in the 60s. NBM guidance has not been congruent with observational data over the past few days and therefore MaxT grids were adjusted up for best fit. Temperatures are already 10-15 degrees above normal and are expected to remain there throughout the week. Starting the latter part of next week, a deep longwave trough will move into the region and relieve us of the hot and dry conditions seen previously. Chances for showers and storms increase throughout the region. Timing of showers and storms is uncertain but the greatest chance seems to be on Thursday. Cooler temperatures will follow with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s. GNC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River through tonight but not expecting this activity to impact the KMKL area. VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period with winds from the south between 5 and 10 knots. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...GNC AVIATION...ARS