FXUS64 KMEG 041128 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 528 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .UPDATE... See the 12z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... High pressure will remain over the Mid-South today. As a result, expect another dry day with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. By Friday morning, an upper level low pressure system will begin to approach the Mid-South. The system will be weakening as it moves into the area, opening up from a closed low to an open trough. The latest NAM and Canadian models continue not to show much QPF over the area from the system. However, all of the CAM models show bands of showers developing over the area after sunrise Friday morning. The showers will increase in coverage during the afternoon hours. The showers will then start shift south during the evening as the upper trough begins to move out of the area. With the CAM models more in line with the GFS and ECMWF solutions, went toward the higher side of guidance in regards to POPS. Have 30/40 POPS from a corridor from near Jonesboro southward through the Memphis Metro to near Water Valley and Oxford, Mississippi areas. Will carry 20 POPS for pretty much elsewhere. POPS may need to be bumped up further with future forecasts if this trend continues. High pressure will rebuild into the Mid-South over the weekend. Expect dry conditions to prevail through Tuesday Night as the high begins to shift east early next week. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s. High temperatures will then be warmer each consecutive day thereafter as the high begins to shift east allowing for winds to turn around to the south. Highs by Wednesday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Have small POPS for Wednesday as a few warm air advection showers may occur across the Mississippi Delta. KRM && .AVIATION... /12z TAFs/ Sunny with light and variable winds today. Expect winds to become more from the east and northeast this afternoon/evening with increasing high clouds. A few light showers are possible tomorrow, but dry low-level air limits confidence at this time. MJ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$