FXUS64 KMEG 141130
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes into the
Mid-South this morning. A few showers have popped up from time to
time over areas east of the MS River overnight but most places
have been dry. A shortwave is pushing through NE OK/NW AR with
showers and thunderstorms developing in that area. Temps are
generally in the lower to mid 70s across the Mid-South.

Today and tonight...The shortwave pushing through the Southern
Plains will dive SE with the associated convection staying mainly
SW of the forecast area though it could creep into parts of the
Delta near Clarksdale later this morning. The 500 mb trough axis
will gradually shift east today with afternoon convection most
prevalent east of the MS River and especially toward the TN River.
PWATs continue to be elevated so isolated heavy rain is possible
along with some localized flooding. Highs will be mainly in the
upper 80s though anyone seeing some sustained sunshine will top 90
pretty easily. Convection will diminish this evening with loss of
heating and lows overnight will remain mild, in the lower 70s.

Saturday...The 500 mb trough axis will shift east along with most
of the rain chances. Small chances for showers and thunderstorms
will remain along the TN River and across NE MS but areal coverage
will be much lower than Friday. Expect increasing amounts of
sunshine as well which will help temps climb back into the lower
90s across western sections including the Memphis Metro.

Sunday...A cold front will push through the region knocking down
temps a couple of degrees and more importantly, begin to provide
some relief from the ongoing humidity.

Monday through Thursday...Northwest flow aloft will prevail with
surface high pressure across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. A couple of reinforcing cold fronts will sustain the
drier northerly flow through the week resulting in slightly below
normal temperatures and well below normal humidity levels with
dewpoints in the 60s. By Thursday northwest flow breaks down and
a disturbance moves north from the Gulf Coast resulting in
chances for showers and thunderstorms across southern and eastern
sections of the Mid-South.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

/12Z TAFs/

Patchy dense fog and low cigs will be the main story this morning
across the Mid-South. Conditions are expected to slowly improve by
mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again
through the afternoon/early evening primarily west of the MS
River. Did not include the mention of any activity at JBR due to
lower probabilities. Winds will be primarily from the north today
4-7kts. Skies will gradually start to clear out this evening with
winds becoming light.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$