FXUS64 KMEG 220113 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 713 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022 .UPDATE... Evening Update As evident by latest GOES imagery we have a mostly clear sky. The temperatures for tonight should drop into the low to mid teens. Dry weather is expected to continue through midday Monday. No major changes made. Previous forecast remains on track. SMW && .DISCUSSION... PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022/ DISCUSSION... The arctic air will remain entrenched over the Mid-South for one more night before the Rex block over the West Coast breaks down. The gradient relaxes overnight, allowing winds to become light and variable. The light winds, clear skies, and dewpoints in the mid teens will support strong radiational cooling conditions. Guidance is often too warm in these scenarios, especially east of the MS River, so I've kept overnight lows on the low end of the model envelope. Temperatures will begin to moderate tomorrow as winds back from a more westerly direction under nearly full insolation. Expect high temperatures generally in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The warming trend will continue Sunday into Monday with temps peaking the mid 50s Sunday. Southwest winds will resume Sunday night as a surface low tracks across the Mid-MS valley, veering westerly during the day as a weak cold front dips into the region. This boundary will quickly wash out Sunday night as a polar branch trough swings across the Northern Plains. The ensuing pressure falls at the surface will enhance southerly flow Monday and Monday night, but dewpoints are only expected to climb into the lower 40s before the cold front moves through the area Monday night. During this time, the closed low currently over the southwest CONUS opens up and moves east across the Southern Plains. This wave will contract as it moves east and phases with the longwave trough, tracking across central or northern MS. Its surface reflection will be a coastal low that develops near the TX Coastal Bend and tracks along the northern Gulf coast Monday night and Tuesday. We're going to be pretty far north of this wave with the greatest rain chances remaining across north MS. The precipitation shield may extend as far poleward as the OH River, though the EPS brings very little precip north of I-40. This system will move quickly, enhancing rainfall chances Monday night and Tuesday. The greatest potential for measurable precipitation will be 06-18z Tuesday. The the air mass associated with this cold front will be rather cold, this is another example of the cold air chasing the departing precipitation. Anecdotally, these systems often under- perform and this one looks pretty routine. The cooler, drier ECMWF soundings could support a very light wintry mix, after diabatic effects are considered, but there is a reason the EPS members are largely dry. Meanwhile, the GEFS is a bit wetter and could support a brief wintry mix on the backside of the departing wave. However, nothing significant is anticipated with little to no accumulation. Cold weather is forecast to round out the remainder of the forecast as another deep trough digs over the central CONUS late week. Precipitation is possible heading into the weekend, but confidence is low at this time. MJ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR to continue over the next 30+ hours. Light NNE winds will gradually back to the west during the day Saturday, as surface pressure ridge axis drops south of the area. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$