FXUS64 KMEG 282055
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
355 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are currently trekking through Middle
Tennessee. Additional showers and storms will move into West
Tennessee by late afternoon and continue through early Friday.
Tomorrow, hot and dry conditions will persist through the weekend
into next week. Temperatures are expected to be above normal with
highs in the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Upper-level water vapor imagery depicts a upper low centered in
the Great Lakes region extending into the MidSouth with a upper
level ridge amplifying behind it. As the low moves east, the ridge
will build in and result in hot and dry conditions for the
remainder of the week into next week.

Currently, a shortwave trough, rounding the base of the main
trough, is triggering showers and thunderstorms across TN. An
additional round of showers and storms will ignite along the base
tonight and continue through early Friday morning. Guidance shows
this additional convection mainly focused in west TN.

Tomorrow, hot and dry conditions are expected to impact the area
as the ridge continues to amplify and extend in the region. Highs are
anticipated to be in the 90s and lows in the 60s. NBM guidance has
not been congruent with observational data over the past few days
and therefore MaxT grids were adjusted up for best fit.
Temperatures are already 10-15 degrees above normal and are
expected to remain there throughout the week.

Starting the latter part of next week, a deep longwave trough
will move into the region and relieve us of the hot and dry
conditions seen previously. Chances for showers and storms
increase throughout the region. Timing of showers and storms is
uncertain but the greatest chance seems to be on Thursday. Cooler
temperatures will follow with highs in the upper 70s and lows in
the upper 50s.

GNC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over
portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River through tonight
but not expecting this activity to impact the KMKL area. VFR
conditions will continue for the entire forecast period with winds
from the south between 5 and 10 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...GNC
AVIATION...ARS