FXUS64 KMEG 011014
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
414 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2022

One more dry day then an unsettled weather pattern sets up across
the region into next week.

Cool high pressure will prevail today with a mix of clouds and
sun as high clouds spill into the region. Highs will be chilly
with readings mostly in the upper 40s. It will be quite dry with
dewpoints in the teens and 20s. As high pressure slips east
tonight return flow kicks up and moisture will increase rapidly.
A few showers could develop toward morning as warm air advection
strengthens. Clouds and a few showers can be expected on Friday in
the warm air advection regime ahead of the approaching cold
front. Temps will warm back toward normal with a moderate
southerly breeze.

A cold front will push through the area late Friday night into
Saturday morning. Expect rain coverage to increase overnight as
the front pushes south and an upper trough swings through the Mid
MS Valley into the OH Valley. Upper support is fairly weak so QPF
amounts will be relatively light ranging from a tenth to a quarter
of an inch. There could be a few rumbles of thunder since there is
some elevated instability but no severe weather expected. Rain
should be southeast of the Memphis metro by early Saturday
morning. There will be a pretty quick 10 degree temp drop behind
the front. By 12z Saturday the front will probably be located
somewhere from NW TN into east AR so temps will already be
dropping into the 40s across areas NW of the front while it will
still be quite mild to the southeast with readings in the lower
60s. Expect temps to drop during the morning as the front moves SE
through the Memphis metro into north MS with brisk NW winds
developing behind the front. Front will exit the Mid-South by noon
with dry, cool and some clearing during the afternoon as surface
high pressure builds in.

Upper level high pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico
with fast moving zonal flow across the region which spells
unsettled weather continuing. An upper level disturbance
overrunning the cool high pressure in place will result in a
chance for rain late Saturday night into Sunday. The front stalled
along the Gulf Coast will lift back as a warm front Sunday night
into Monday and stall across the Mid-South with numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms through Tuesday. Significant moisture
interacting with this front could result in some heavy rainfall at
times. PW anomalies of 200-300% can be expected along and south
of the front. Could see 2-3 inches of rain from Sunday night into
the middle of next week. We may get a bit of a break on Wednesday
as the front shifts back south as a cold front. That break will
likely be short-lived as the front will probably move back north
with more rain by Thursday.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

VFR conditions through the period. Wind is northerly at 6kts or
less. Wind will veer SE and be 7-12kts tomorrow through the day.
Wind should relax again overnight tomorrow. We could see some
showers tomorrow night but confidence was too low to include it in
the TAFs at this issuance.

SMW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...SMW