FXUS64 KMEG 162027
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
327 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across portions of the
Mid-South tonight as a cold front slowly moves into the area. A
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
mostly over portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are
possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible over
northeast Mississippi on Wednesday and over most of the Mid-South
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Rain chances will linger
across the region for the upcoming weekend along with much cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show an upper-level low centered
over southeast Nebraska with a negatively-tilted trough rotating
through the Middle Mississippi Valley. This is producing some
upper-level divergence in the left exit region of a 125 kt 250 mb
upper-level jet streak. Meanwhile, surface analysis this
afternoon places a surface low over northeast Nebraska with a
trailing cold front extending south into east Oklahoma and back
into West Texas. A tight pressure gradient and the presence of a
40 kt low-level jet over the Lower Mississippi Valley is
resulting in elevated winds and winds occasionally reaching
Wind Advisory criteria over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT are in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees with surface dewpoints in the 60s.

Regional WSR-88D radar trends show scattered showers and
thunderstorms over central Arkansas. Short-term models and CAMs
show this convective activity gradually spreading into portions of
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel this evening then
spreading east of the Mississippi River overnight. Surface-based
CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, moderately steep to steep
700-500 mb layer lapse rates, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values around 50
kts, and some low-level curvature in the hodographs support the
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms containing
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado this evening.

Storms will gradually become elevated as instability decreases
with increasing inhibition towards early Wednesday morning.
Convective activity is expected weaken into Wednesday morning with
the potential for some re-development mostly over portions of
northeast Mississippi by Wednesday afternoon. Surface-based
instability is expected to be higher around 2000 J/kg with shear
somewhat less around 40 kts. This may be sufficient to produce a
few strong to severe thunderstorms if convection initiates along
left over boundaries from tonight's convection.

Additional showers and thunderstorms including the potential for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as a cold front moves through the
region. The front is expected to slow down over the Lower
Mississippi Valley for the upcoming weekend. This will result in
some overrunning rain this weekend. Much cooler temperatures are
expected for the upcoming weekend with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A low level inversion below an elevated mixed layer should cap
most TSRA development this afternoon. JBR will be the exception
after 21Z, given proximity to an approaching upper level trough.
This trough will progress slowly east this evening, with TSRA
chances increasing at MEM toward midnight CDT/05Z, aided by a
45KT low level jet around FL020.

TSRA should run out of instability overnight, with residual -SHRA
likely over north MS toward 12Z. Residual outflow boundary may
serve as a focus for isolated TSRA around TUP Wednesday afternoon,
beyond the valid TAF period.

TCF/Extended TCF appear on track through the next 30 hours.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB