FXUS64 KMEG 182333
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.DISCUSSION.../issued 243 PM CDT Sat Sep 18 2021/

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
the Midsouth resulting in over 3 inches of rain along the Alabama
Mississippi state line and south of Memphis along the Mississippi
River. Some areas have seen over 5 inches. Rainfall rates have
been observed over 2 inches per hour. The area of most concern has
now shifted into west Tennessee along the Tennessee river. PW's
will remain at or above 2 inches across most of north Mississippi
and portions of west Tennessee as the result of weak south flow
around Post Tropical System Nicholas.

A weak mid level low will remain over the region tonight and
tomorrow along with abundant atmospheric moisture. Outflow
boundaries from storms today may help focus lift tonight and
tomorrow. At this time we expect the most activity to shift a bit
farther east with time. We extended the flash flood watch through
tomorrow for portions of west Tennessee and north Mississippi.

Tomorrow into early Monday a an open trough is expected to develop
just west of the Mississippi River resulting in slightly better
steering flow across the Midsouth. The threat for heavy rain and
flooding should diminish a bit Sunday night into Monday.

Monday afternoon and overnight a broad longwave trough will shift
out of the Plains resulting in Southwest flow across the area. At
least scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday and
Tuesday. No strong or severe storms are expected.

A fairly strong cold front is expected to move across the Midsouth
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Unlike many September cold
fronts, this one is is expected to traverse the area quickly. Some
stronger showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front.

Behind the front a cooler and drier Fall-like airmass will move
into the Midsouth. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are
expected to be in the 70s with morning lows in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

Slow-moving showers and storms lingering throughout the area.
Continued VCSH at KTUP and KJBR through this evening. Widespread
IFR CIGs move in overnight and persist through mid-morning,
lifting to MVFR after sunrise and VFR by the afternoon. Spotty
showers and storms cover the area again tomorrow, causing light
and variable winds with stronger gusts possible. By tomorrow
evening, winds should settle into easterly between 5-10kt. Low
CIGs return by the end of the TAF period, especially near KTUP.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$