FXUS64 KMEG 271134
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE...
See the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level low pressure system remains over the Southern
Plains this morning. The upper low will slowly move eastward over
the next 48 hours and will be located over the Mid-South by
Thursday morning. As a result, periods of showers and
thunderstorms will continue across the area. Some storms could
become strong at any point through this time period. Isolated
heavy rainfall will also be possible especially in scenarios where
lines of storms develop and train over the same area.
Temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to lower 80s
for highs.

Currently, showers continue to blossom over Northeast Mississippi
and areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Models show
this convection shifting to Northwest Tennessee during the morning
hours. A lull may then occur for a couple of hours before
convection begins developing as daytime heating interacts with the
upper level low pressure system. As the sun begins to set,
convection will begin to diminish from the loss of daytime
heating. Thursday will likely be a repeat of today in regards to
shower and thunderstorm development.

The upper low is forecast to open up as an upper trof by
Thursday evening. This will allow a cold front to move into the
Mid-South on Friday. Precipitation chances will diminish behind
the passage of the front.

A pleasant weekend is expected across the Mid-South as drier air
will filter into the area behind the front. This will bring lower
humidity levels to the region. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

By early next week, an upper ridge of high pressure will build
over the middle part of the country. Highs will begin to climb
back into the mid to upper 80s. Humidity levels will also
increase, but chances for precipitation should remain limited.
Can't rule out a stray diurnal thunderstorm developing, but will
keep forecast dry for now.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

IFR ceilings have developed across much of the Mid-South ahead of
the next batch of showers (with a few embedded TSRA). As this
precipitation lifts north by late morning, ceilings will improve
with ceilings in the 2500-4000 ft range during the afternoon.
Scattered diurnal convection is expected to redevelop, but limited
spatiotemporal confidence will keep thunder confined to vicinity
for now. Updates to prevailing weather and tempo groups may be
required later today as timing and location are better discerned.

Most of the diurnal precipitation is expected to end by 01z but a
few showers (or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) will be possible
across west TN or north MS. There is also the possibility for some
patchy stratus late tonight, but this will not be included at this
time.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$