FXUS64 KMEG 062132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 332 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 Temperatures across the Mid-South will vary widely Friday through this weekend as a front waffles north and south across the region. Temperatures will be well above normal south of the front and near normal north of the front. A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. A strong cold front will push through the region on Sunday and knock temperatures down below normal for the early part of next week. Several rounds of rainfall are expected by midweek next week as the weather pattern becomes unsettled. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 Warm and humid conditions are prevalent across the majority of the Mid-South this afternoon as we remain south of a stalled cold front. The latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary front from West Virginia west southwest back through central Kentucky and back into northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. Areas along and north of the front are in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees along with light fog. Areas south of the front are well warm-sectored with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. The latest mesoanalysis data shows a yield of up to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE collocated with 45 to 50 knots of bulk shear. The warm sector has remained well capped throughout the day due to a stout 725mb inversion. The front will begin to impinge on the warm sector by late afternoon and early evening as the front sags south over the next couple hours. Shear is nearly unidirectional through the column, which suggests that any storms that form in the warm sector will likely split. Although low level lapse rates remain rather poor, mid- level lapse rates are rather healthy at 7 C/km. The main threats with any strong to severe storms will be hail and damaging winds. Although a tornado cannot be ruled out, SRH values generally remain marginal below 100 m2/s2. The threat for strong storms will end this evening as the front pushes through much of the area late tonight. The aforementioned front will stall over north Mississippi tomorrow with the majority of the Mid-South on the cool side of the front once again. Light passing showers are possible, but will remain scattered at best. Temperatures will vary from 40s across the north with lower 60s to the south. The boundary will lift back north on Saturday with temperatures rebounding back into the upper 60s and lower 70s. A few showers are possible as the front lifts back north. The front will march back south early Sunday morning with temperatures dropping in the 30s and 40s on Sunday. With mainly westerly flow aloft, the cool airmass will remain over the region through early next week. The weather looks to become unsettled next Tuesday as deep moist southwesterly flow sets up across the Mississippi Valley. Several rounds of moderate rainfall looks possible through the middle of next week. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Feb 6 2025 Messy TAFs continue this issuance. A waffling front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms through early tomorrow morning. Ceilings will bounce back and forth between MVFR and IFR across the airspace through the TAF period. West/southwest winds will shift more north/northeast by the end of the period at around 7-12 kts. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH