FXUS64 KMEG 041128
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
528 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.UPDATE...
See the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021/

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will remain over the Mid-South today. As a result,
expect another dry day with highs ranging from the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

By Friday morning, an upper level low pressure system will begin
to approach the Mid-South. The system will be weakening as it
moves into the area, opening up from a closed low to an open
trough. The latest NAM and Canadian models continue not to show
much QPF over the area from the system. However, all of the CAM
models show bands of showers developing over the area after
sunrise Friday morning. The showers will increase in coverage
during the afternoon hours. The showers will then start shift
south during the evening as the upper trough begins to move out of
the area. With the CAM models more in line with the GFS and ECMWF
solutions, went toward the higher side of guidance in regards to
POPS. Have 30/40 POPS from a corridor from near Jonesboro
southward through the Memphis Metro to near Water Valley and
Oxford, Mississippi areas. Will carry 20 POPS for pretty much
elsewhere. POPS may need to be bumped up further with future
forecasts if this trend continues.

High pressure will rebuild into the Mid-South over the weekend.
Expect dry conditions to prevail through Tuesday Night as the high
begins to shift east early next week. Highs on Saturday will be
in the 50s. High temperatures will then be warmer each consecutive
day thereafter as the high begins to shift east allowing for winds
to turn around to the south. Highs by Wednesday will range from
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Have small POPS for Wednesday as a few
warm air advection showers may occur across the Mississippi Delta.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

Sunny with light and variable winds today. Expect winds to become
more from the east and northeast this afternoon/evening with
increasing high clouds. A few light showers are possible tomorrow,
but dry low-level air limits confidence at this time.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$