FXUS64 KMEG 271848
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1248 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/

UPDATE...

Plenty of sunshine is occurring across the Mid-South this morning
as SFC high pressure remains over the area. Enjoy the sunshine
while you can. Clouds ahead of a shortwave will begin spreading
into Northeast Arkansas late this afternoon into the evening
hours. As a result, have made some minor tweaks to sky conditions.
Otherwise, rest of forecast looks good. Update will be out
shortly.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 300 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2020/

Late-night GOES imagery showed clear skies over the Mid-South.
Drier air seems to finally be filtering into the region this
morning, although, wouldn't be surprised if we saw a couple more
areas with flurries early this morning. However, this drier air
will provide clear skies today and high temperatures in the mid to
upper 40s.

A shortwave will move through the area later tonight into Friday
morning. With temperatures still below 0C aloft along with below
freezing surface temperatures, northwest Tennessee has the
potential, so see snow late Thursday night into Friday morning. No
accumulations or impacts are expected. The window for snow ends
early Friday morning. Models have trended towards slight showers
persisting through the day as another shortwave moves through by
Friday evening. Have added in a slight chance of PoPs for the
day, mainly confined to northwest Tennessee. High temperatures
Friday will generally be in the lower 50s.

A ridge will settle over the Mid-South, delivering a pleasant
weekend. Expect mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and temperatures
generally in the 60s. The weekend seems like the best time to have
any outdoor plans. Unfortunately, this lovely weather won't last
long, as strengthening southwest flow will bring moisture back
into the area.

Models have been decently consistent on rain moving into the area
Monday through Wednesday of next week with the ECMWF and GFS
pushing a strong cold front through the area Monday. Frontal
boundary development will then orient itself parallel to the upper
flow. With that being said, the feature won't move much and
extended periods of heavy rainfall will return as energy
repeatedly moves northeast along the boundary. The GFES plumes
and ECMWF Ensembles show storm total QPF ranging from 2 to 4
inches through early Thursday. If this happens, it will
reaggravate the rivers, and continue flooding... will continue to
monitor. Temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in
the 60s.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conds expected through the period. A weak upper level
disturbance will move through tonight with a few showers and
perhaps a snow flake at KMKL/KJBR. A brief period of MVFR cigs are
possible at KMKL Friday morning. WSW winds at 10 kts with higher
gusts this afternoon diminishing overnight then becoming WNW
Friday around 10 kts.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$