WOUS40 KWNS 222035
PWOSPC
ALZ000-ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-230200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

       NORTHWEST ALABAMA
       EASTERN ARKANSAS
       SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
       SOUTHERN INDIANA
       WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
       SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
       NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
       WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE GREATEST RISK AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
MICHIGAN...OHIO...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM IMPULSE...A STRONG SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING
WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...A BROAD CURRENT OF FAST
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND
LOUISIANA AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
AIR.

AS THE STORMS BUILD AND INTERACT WITH THE JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF
THEM LIKELY WILL BECOME LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...POSING A RISK FOR
STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  THE TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EXTENSIVE LINE LATER
TONIGHT...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THROUGH DAWN MONDAY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..GUYER/MEAD/CORFIDI.. 01/22/2012