FXUS64 KMEG 120832
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. MOST PLACES ARE IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S.
TONIGHT WILL START OFF CLEAR BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY FALL QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN AND SURFACE
WINDS START TO INCREASE A LITTLE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS TO THE
WEST OF THE MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE MID SOUTH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEAKENS DUE TO THE DRIER
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND RESULTANT POOR LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH 2 INCHES
NEAR THE COLD FRONT. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ARKANSAS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO MUCH OF THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE MID
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL POSITION THE MID SOUTH SHOULD BE IN THE MORE STABLE RAIN
COOLED AIR DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SO SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
ARE MINIMAL ATTM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT MOVES A LITTLE
NORTH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS MAY INCREASE.

FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA HELPING TO PUSH THE
FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH. BY THE WEEKEND EXPECT A LARGE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  55  78  62 /   0   0  20  60
MKL  73  47  77  59 /   0   0  10  60
JBR  74  51  75  60 /   0   0  30  60
TUP  76  48  78  58 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

SJM