FXUS64 KMEG 041135 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 535 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MOST OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT LOOKS LESS LIKELY NOW AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS MORNING/S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUDS WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE BELIEVE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIKELY CONFINED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY SWING THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE H5 LOW ROTATES THROUGH BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES COOLER TO START THE WEEK OFF BUT WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN SPITE OF THE COOL DOWN. BY MIDWEEK A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. WITH BETTER LONG TERM MODEL AGREEMENT...INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH QUICKLY AS ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST ABOVE NORMAL. CCD && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL AFFECT KMEM...KMKL...AND MOSTLY KTUP THIS MORNING...WHILE KJBR WILL SEE VCSH. THIS CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE BY MIDDAY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING KTUP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. CIGS WILL START OFF VFR AT KMEM AND KJBR AND KMKL...WITH MVFR AT KTUP. TENDENCY THOUGH FOR PREDOMINATE MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL SITES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPO IFR AT KTUP AND KJBR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY NEAR TEN KNOTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH VEERING WINDS TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO KMEM AND KJBR TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR STRATOCU FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR SUNSET...WITH KMKL AND KTUP REMAINING MVFR. JAB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 69 45 54 37 / 90 20 10 10 MKL 67 44 53 35 / 90 50 20 10 JBR 66 43 52 33 / 70 10 10 10 TUP 68 47 59 38 / 90 70 10 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$