FXUS64 KMEG 181719 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1219 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Latest GOES-16 Water Vapor/Visible satellite trends this morning indicate a weakening MCV centered near Brighton, TN. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D radar trends show rain showers quickly diminishing over eastern Arkansas and West Tennessee. Meanwhile, there has been an increasing convective trend over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi. Surface-based CAPE values are averaging around 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 25 kts, and relatively poor lapse rates overall. A strong thunderstorm or two is possible across this aforementioned area through early afternoon with gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall. Confidence in severe thunderstorm potential remains on the low end at this time. Some adjustments will be made to rain chances to account for short-term trends. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape overall. CJC && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue spreading across the Mid-South through around sunset today. Patchy fog will remain possible in mainly low-lying river areas through around sunrise this morning. High pressure will build across the region Sunday morning drying us out and warming us up to around 90 degrees heading into the beginning of the workweek. Showers and thunderstorm return Wednesday and through the weekend as multiple upper level disturbances move over the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Current temperatures are in the mid 60s to lower 70s with cloud cover continuing to increase west to east. A few sites have begun to fog with reduced visibilities as ample moisture, decent radiational cooling, and mostly calm to light winds have spread across the Mid- South. As we move closer to sunrise, fog coverage will become more patchy as visibilities lower around 2SM. At this time, we are not expecting a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though we will be monitoring very closely and will issue one if need be. Current NQA radar indicates isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly creeping across Northeast Arkansas and Northeast Mississippi. As we move closer to sunrise and through the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread as an upper low, currently centered over north-central Missouri, and a few shortwaves track over the Mid-South. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the movement of these thunderstorms through today. This upper low will quickly push east, past our area, by tomorrow evening as high pressure begins to build in, drying us out and warming us up. As high pressure settles over the Mid-South, areawide temperatures will begin to warm near to slightly above 90 degrees giving us the first widespread 90+ degree day of the year come Monday. As moisture increases over the Mid-South and our next upper level system begins to move in Wednesday morning, we will cool slightly back down into the 80s through the weekend. As mentioned, our next system, an upper trough and surface low tracking over the upper Great Lakes region and tandem cold front, begins to move in Wednesday morning, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. The synoptic and mesoscale regions look unsettled Wednesday through the weekend. 30-60% PoPs will remain in the forecast over this timeframe as uncertainty in model guidance begins to increase late next week. The Storm Prediction Center has has a large area just to our northwest highlighted under a 15% chance for severe weather as the aforementioned low pressure systems and tandem cold front track east. Though not highlighted currently, Wednesday looks to be our next possible severe weather threat day to look at, however, as mentioned previously, uncertainty remains on the higher end. AEH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Most of the thunderstorm activity that moved through the Mid-South earlier this morning in now in western Alabama. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy areas of fog may develop overnight, with MVFR visibilities possible at KMEM and KMKL. Winds will be mainly light and variable through Sunday morning. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...ARS